In the latest US economic news, Former Fed Chief, Alan Greenspan said on Friday, November 7, 2008, that he thinks that the US housing market could fall another 5 to 10 percentage points, but that he expects the market to stabilize sometime during the first half of next year.  He bases much of his forecast on the increased rate that single family homes are selling.  See the full article Greenspan Sees U.S. GDP Down Significantly in 4Q.

Fortunately for those of us in North Texas, and especially Fort Worth, Texas, we still enjoy low unemployment and a stable housing market where home inventories have been decreasing (which tends to create demand) and home values have even modestly increased in many local housing markets.  Providing the US housing market stabilizes in the first half of next year as Greenspan predicts, our market in North Texas should be moving from stable and transitioning to normal because we are already fairing better than most of the rest of the nation in terms of home values, sales and inventories.  From an inventory perspective, a normal market lies between a buyer's market and a sellers market where home inventories would be at a 5 month supply.  That means assuming a constant rate of sales as measured at the beginning of a particular point in time in a local market, if no other homes were to be absorbed (put up for sale) into that market from that point on, it would take five months to sell all of the homes already available on the market.  I use the term  "local market" in the definition because this measurement would tend to lose significance the farther it is expanded outward into a larger area(s).  For instance, this definition of housing inventory is useful when I'm sitting at the table with a seller consulting with him/her on the value of their home and explaining how home inventories in the local area affect home pricing as a function of time.  Selling a home within the shortest possible time is a function of lower price since a higher price would tend to push outward how long a home would be on the market.  This information and other relevant data is usually provided in the form of a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) by your real estate agent when they come to market your home for sale.

Let us be your Fort Worth Real Estate Agent!  We will provide you a free CMA on your home and give you expert advice based on our knowledge and experience.

By Bernie Christian