Recently I attended a Keller William's seminar wherein Mr. Gary Keller, Founder and CEO of Keller Williams Inc.® discussed how some buyers and sellers are waiting for the right time to buy and/or sell a home.  He refers to this condition as "timing the market".   In the diagram above, "The Economic Cycle of Real Estate" is my attempt to recreate the original grease pencil drawing by Mr. Keller at the seminar that he presented in one of his talks.  This diagram demonstrates that as time moves forward, the real estate market tends to cycle up and down over and again as it has historically for many years.  Driven by supply and demand, the market moves itself through highs and lows as buyers purchase and sellers sell properties.  Also, the housing market seems to be affected by a "herd mentality" in that people tend to behave or act as a whole unit.  For example, in the current cycle buyers are notoriously absent considering the fact that the local housing market is considered by many experts to be a buyer's market.  This begs the question, what are buyer's waiting for...another seller's market?  There is no question that a buyer's market favors buyers and some buyers have either not figured this out or they are waiting.  They seem to be "timing the market" by waiting until it is bottomed out so that they can get the best deal.  Yes, it is an idea worth exploring.  However, when even the best real estate sales people, consultants, mortgage brokers and other market experts cannot predict with any precision the beginning or end of a given market cycle, how then shall the average home buyer proceed in this endeavor?  Most experts agree that buyers should buy a home when they are ready to buy and that it is a bad strategy to wait for the market to change before they actually make a purchase.  Also, the same advice goes for sellers.  Sellers should not wait for the market to go up before they offer to sell their home simply because the market could actually adjust downward deflating the value of their home before it is even sold.  Now, we all know someone who got lucky in the purchase or sale of their home.  I want to emphasize the work "Lucky".  In the example above, you can see that their are both lucky and unlucky zones with a safe zone in the middle.  The problem lies with the fact that no one controls the housing market and even expert predictions end up being mostly off the mark.  The housing market is also influenced by the job market, the global and national economy and all kinds of direct and indirect factors.  The health of the local economy plays a direct role in the supply and demand for homes.  Even mortgage interest rates can adjust upward when housing costs are moving downward offsetting any potential gain from what otherwise looks like a bargain purchase.  The variables affecting home sales are simply too complex for most of us to come out top by timing the market.  Therefore, waiting for a significant change by attempting to time the market will probably not result in particular financial harm to an individual on a given purchase any more than it would particularly favor him/her on a purchase.  Most sales in any given market will inevitably occur in the safe zone (see above graph) although some speculators will occassionally get lucky and some will be unlucky.  However, the point is this...if there is no particular advantage or disadvantage in timing the market then why would you wait to buy a home? Even if you bought a home on the high side, the market will eventually adjust and displace your initial loss unless you were a very unlucky person!  The time to enjoy a home and all of its pleasures and benefits is right now! 

We sell homes and bring buyers and sellers together in Fort Worth and Tarrant County, Texas.  The housing market is very stable and the economy is fueled in part by the booming oil and gas industry in this part of the country.  Home sales in the 76179 zip code were actually up 8% compared with other areas where homes sales were generally down compared to what was happening a year ago.  We are knowledgable and experienced agents and would love to earn your trust and gain you business.

If we can be of service to you, please contact us at your convenience.

Best Regards!

Bernie